This paper was read on December 8 1950, and represented JJ's inaugural contribution as President of the Society. In it he analyses the tendency of European farming in general to specialise increasingly in livestock products, and to depend increasingly on importing cereal crops from overseas. He traces trends from the beginning of the century, through the disturbances of two world wars, and showed how Irish agriculture responded to varying relative prices. He refers back usefully to Tom Barrington's 1926 paper.
The then goes on to challenge, again, the received wisdom that more tillage means more agricultural production. Intensive grass farming with intensive animal husbandry could increase output and employment in agriculture. More tillage as fostered under the 'economic war' conditions of the 30s actually led to less production. Even where tillage crops are used as animal feed, the main raw material is in fact grass. He makes use of Dr Henry Kennedy's estimate of grass production in terms of a cereal equivalent per acre of 1600lbs; '...native tillage for the production of animal feed is and must be closely integrated with the import of those supplementary elements which native tillage cannot provide...Only to the extent that our agriculture is based on grass, fresh or preserved, can we hope to achieve agricultural self-sufficiency with regard to animal feed...'.
This paper was the second of his Presidency, and was delivered on February 5 1953. It was a monumental attempt to summarise the history of the interactions between the 'leviathans', Britain and the US, in the interstices of whose turbulent movements we in our small boat, and other European nations, have to survive.
JJ reminds his audience the protectionism of the US in the 20s which crippled the re-development of Europe's export trade, and led directly to the 1929 debacle. He goes on to relate this to the dollar crises which followed the second world war, and predicts the demise effectively of the 'sterling area'. He analyses the effects of the Marshall Plan, including the negative effects of its coming to an end, and then the effects of the price perturbations introduced by the Korean war.
Commenting on the 'Colombo plan' he remarks that the indigent citizens of the colonial empire were being expected to subsidise both Britain's welfare State and her rearmament drive.
He goes on to note the re-emergence of Germany and Japan as significant actors in the export markets of the world, and comments on the probable effects of the industrialisation programme in Eastern Europe, which he predicts will be crippled by the restriction of east-west trade.
This paper constitutes a critical assessment of the way world trade was developing under the influence of the Cold War and rearmament. He remarks that the US would rather spend $1B on rearmament than $100M on investing, perhaps with some risk, in the development of an impoverished country regarded as untrustworthy. He concludes that '...any sudden outbreak of real peace would inflict a most serious shock on capitalist economies...'.
The ensuing discussion included TK Whitaker, Prof GA Duncan, Mr Bourke and Dr Geary, who attempted to estimate what the real rate of exchange with the dollar should be, in contrast with the official rate of $2.80 to the £.
Symposium on Economic Development
This event was planned to give some critical attention to the famous 1959 Whitaker White paper, which mapped the road to the export-led growth of the 60s, and subsequent orientation towards the European Common market. There were heavyweight contributions from the economic gurus of the time, and I will not attempt to summarise them, except to note the fact that several of the contributors, particularly Labhras O Nuallain and Donal Nevin, picked on the lack of attention paid in the White Paper to the need for technical training and research into the type of knowhow required to generate ideas for exportable products.
JJ's contribution was, typically for him, in his best micro-economic 'anecdotal' mode. He recounted the experience of his experimental development of small-farm market gardening at Grattan Lodge, Co Laois, on 10 acres, employing one man. His garden was manured by two cows, and generated £206 gross revenue in 1958, at a book loss of £62, while feeding the house and keeping it in milk. He urged the development of quality horticultural products for the export market, using air transport, and suggested this as a topic to be researched by the then new Agricultural Institute.
Comments on Other Authors
I have alas been as yet unable to trace JJ's comments on Garrett Fitzgerald's paper; if I can find them I will insert them here.
JJ's comments on Brendan Senior's paper are insightful. He supports the case for integrating teaching, advisory services and agricultural research at University level, and calls for both universities to be involved. After touching on the background of the Glasnevin Model Farm, which went back to 1838 as one of the more enlightened aspects of the National Primary Education programme, he urges that under modern conditions agriculture should be combined with second-level as well as third-level education, and references chapter 2 of his then recently published book 'Irish Agriculture in Transition'.
He concludes by remarking that currently the sons of large farmers can pass through schools without ever hearing mention of the significance of protein in the ration or the function of clover in pasture.
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Copyright Dr Roy Johnston 1999